by
Mark Ollig
We
need only to go back to yesterday to see technology once considered science
fiction now becoming science fact.
In
the 1960s television series “Star Trek” a powerful light called a “tractor
beam” was used to hold onto or bring an object closer to the USS Enterprise.
I
recently read, scientists have created a working, smaller version of a tractor
beam; it’s called a microscopic beam.
It
uses a beam of light which attracts microscopic particles toward it.
This
new light beam technology will be first used for medical purposes.
Regularly,
we hear about technologies once thought of as “futuristic” being created into
present-day working devices to be used for the betterment of us all.
I
recall one device which attracted much anticipation six years ago.
There
was wonderment and awe on the faces of the many people watching as the first
iPhone was presented by Steve Jobs.
It
was Jan. 9, 2007 when Jobs walked out on stage, and delivered the keynote
address during the MacWorld Conference and Expo.
“Every
once and a while, a revolutionary product comes along that changes everything,”
Jobs said in his opening statement.
He
then spoke about a revolutionary new device.
You
could feel the excitement being given off from the audience, as they would
applaud and cheer every time Jobs disclosed another morsel of magical
“futuristic technology” featured on the iPhone, which had not been seen on any
other mobile phone of the time.
A
video of this presentation is at http://tinyurl.com/62e9sbe.
In
speculating what the future of technology will be, sometimes, we need to look
to the past.
Of
course, you knew I would bring up “Star Trek,” and, hopefully, we can agree the
series came up with some amazing futuristic devices.
One
person’s unnerving essay (in my humble opinion) on the future impact of
artificially created “superhuman intelligence” and its impact on humans has
been the subject of many discussions during the last 20 years.
Vernor
Vinge, a San Diego State University professor of mathematics, computer
scientist, and author, wrote an essay titled “The Coming Technological
Singularity.”
His
essay was presented during the NASA-sponsored VISION-21 Symposium in March
1993.
“We
are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The
precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities
with greater-than-human intelligence,” Vinge wrote.
A
few of the future events Vinge foresaw:
•
Computers become “awake” and contain superhuman intelligence.
•
Computer networks may also “wake up” as superhumanly intelligent entities.
•
Computer/human interfaces become so entwined, they may be considered
superhumanly intelligent.
This
link, http://tinyurl.com/27p8sk contains the complete essay.
Vinge
stated he felt these events would happen before 2030.
Results
of these events by 2030, according to Vinge, would cause developments
previously thought to take place maybe in a million years, likely happening in
the next hundred years.
I
listened to a recent audio cast on the Internet where Vernor Vinge talked about
technological singularity.
In
it, he gave this description of technological singularity; “In the relatively
near future . . . human-kind will, using technology, either create or become,
creatures of super-human intelligence.”
Vinge
reasoned the word “singularity” is a good metaphor in this instance, because it
involves a technological change that is qualitatively different from the
changes we have achieved in the past.
He
gave an example.
Say
a journalist from today could, by some magical way, interview the famous author
Mark Twain.
The
journalist would describe to him what our era is like, and what was happening
in our time.
Vinge
said Mr. Twain would understand what was being said, and might even be very
enthusiastic about it.
He
said you could discuss our present era with another person even further back in
time, and they would understand what was being said – as a commonly understood
language was being spoken.
The
person from the past might not believe what they were being told about the
future, because the changes would be considered so great, so fantastic, and so
unpredictable, Vinge added.
Vinge
emphasized future events could be explained to a person from the past, because
the person would be able to understand what was being said to them.
“If
you tried to do the same explanatory exercise with a goldfish, you probably
would not be successful,” he explained.
“That
is the difference, in terms of talking about and explaining things
post-singularity compared to now,” Vinge said.
“Thinking
about things [computers] that might be smarter than us is a topic you can get
nervous about if you expect it is to happen soon. It is also, overall, an
optimistic view of progress,” he said.
I,
too, would become a bit nervous thinking about computers that are awake,
self-aware, and considerably more intelligent than the rest of us.
In
the early 1960s, Irving John Good, a British mathematician who worked with Alan
Turning deciphering German code during WWII, wrote “Speculations Concerning the
First Ultraintelligent Machine.”
In
it, Good made this wise statement, “Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is
the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile
enough to tell us how to keep it under control.”
Stanley
Kubrick, director of the movie, “2001: A Space Odyssey,” consulted Good about
the movie’s supercomputer named H.A.L. 9000, which contains intelligence, along
with emotions – and ends up turning against the human astronauts it accompanies
to Jupiter.
“The
Ultimate Computer” was a “Star Trek” episode broadcast in 1968. In it, Mr.
Spock says, “Computers make excellent and efficient servants, but I have no
wish to serve under them.”
