Past ‘future predictions’ gone awry

 © Mark Ollig

I sat down in front of my computer Monday, took a breath, and began typing this week’s column.

While reading the sentences appearing on the display screen, I slowly shook my head and thought, “Let’s take this one in a different direction.” 

“How about reviewing some future predictions from the past and see how those turned out,” I pondered. 

And with that, we are off and running with this week’s column. 

Lee de Forest is famous for inventing the Audion vacuum tube in 1906, which enabled live radio broadcasting. He patented this device in 1907. 

Before the invention of the transistor in 1947, the Audion vacuum tube was the main electronic component used in radio, television broadcasting, and those large, room-sized computers. 

The Audion was also used as an amplification component for long-distance telephone network repeater circuits. 

In 1926, the year Dr. Robert Goddard launched the first liquid-fueled rocket, de Forest made a prediction related to human space travel. 

“To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon, where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to Earth – all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a manufactured voyage will never occur, regardless of all future advances,” de Forest confidently prophesied.  

Six months ago, we observed the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 mission, which sent passengers to the moon where they conducted scientific observations and then safely returned to Earth. 

Lee de Forest passed away June 30, 1961, at the age of 87, a little more than two months after Yuri Gagarin became the first human to travel into space, April 12, 1961. 

De Forest knew a person traveled into space. I wonder if this may have given him pause to rethink his 1926 prediction. 

Even popular national newspapers can miss the mark with their predictions. 

In 1936, the New York Times wrote: “A rocket will never leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” 

Oct. 24, 1946, a captured German V-2 rocket missile from World War II was launched by the US from New Mexico’s White Sands Missile Range.  

The V-2 missile was equipped with a 35-millimeter motion film picture camera. 

After three minutes, its internal guidance system took the V-2 to a height of 65 miles. The onboard camera recorded the first views of the Earth ever seen from space. 

The V-2 then descended and crashed into the Earth, while traveling at 500 feet per second. The flight lasted a total of eight minutes. 

The V-2’s onboard camera was destroyed; however, the 35-millimeter motion film inside it was protected by a hardened steel case. The film video can be viewed here: https://bit.ly/2RwRwm4. 

A Universal News report of this event can be seen at https://bit.ly/38GfBfS. 

In 1943, IBM founder Thomas J. Watson Sr. was reported to have made this prediction, “I think there is a world market for, maybe, five computers.” 

In 2019, 262 million personal computers were sold. 

Nearly 20.5 billion internet-connected electronic sensors and smart devices will be in operation around the world this year. 

By 2025, various sources estimate anywhere from 41 to 75 billion IoT (Internet of Things) devices with unique identifiers will be connected to the internet. 

“[Television] won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night,” said Darryl F. Zanuck in 1946. 

Zanuck started 20th Century Films, and later bought Fox Studios, which was renamed 20th Century Fox. 

Of course, we all know what became of that plywood box. 

Popular Mechanics magazine made this futuristic prediction in 1949, “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons [3,000 pounds].” 

A 2019 15-inch MacBook Pro weighs in at a svelte 4 pounds. 

In 1961, FCC Commissioner T.A.M. Craven made this prediction: “There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.” 

April 6, 1965, the US launched the Intelsat 1 communications space satellite, nicknamed the Early Bird. 

The Early Bird became the first commercial communications satellite to be placed in geosynchronous orbit over the Earth.  

News, sports, and special events broadcast in North America and Europe over the Early Bird began with the introduction of: “live via satellite.” 

The Intelsat 1 satellite provided one TV channel and 240 voice circuits for telephone and telefacsimile (fax) transmissions. 

In 1966, Time magazine wrote, “Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.” 

In 2019, $3.46 trillion was spent globally on e-commerce (online/remote shopping) sales. 

One of my favorite predictions gone awry is from 1977, when Ken Olsen, the founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, said, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” 

If not for my home computer, I would be writing this column using my 1976 Smith-Corona Sterling typewriter.

First view of Earth from Space. Oct. 24, 1946

Space Shuttle rising above the Earth's atmosphere

Robert Goddard constructed and successfully tested his first rocket using liquid fuel. His rocket took its first historical flight on March 16, 1926.

Engineers Stanley R. Peterson (left) and Ray Bowerman (right), checkout the Early Bird, the world's first communication satellite. NASA launched the satellite built by Hughes Aircraft Corporation on April 6, 1965 at 6:48pm E.S.T. from Complex 17a at Cape Kennedy, Florida.

Smith-Corona Sterling manual typewriter

1946 Viewtone VP-100 with a 7-inch screen and a six-channel tuner. 

Another photo of a 1946 Viewtone VP-100 with a 7-inch screen and a six-channel tuner.

V-2 rocket missile from World War II was launched by the US from New Mexico’s White Sands Missile Range.