Past ‘future predictions’ gone awry

 © Mark Ollig

I sat down in front of my computer Monday, took a breath, and began typing this week’s column.

While reading the sentences appearing on the display screen, I slowly shook my head and thought, “Let’s take this one in a different direction.” 

“How about reviewing some future predictions from the past and see how those turned out,” I pondered. 

And with that, we are off and running with this week’s column. 

Lee de Forest is famous for inventing the Audion vacuum tube in 1906, which enabled live radio broadcasting. He patented this device in 1907. 

Before the invention of the transistor in 1947, the Audion vacuum tube was the main electronic component used in radio, television broadcasting, and those large, room-sized computers. 

The Audion was also used as an amplification component for long-distance telephone network repeater circuits. 

In 1926, the year Dr. Robert Goddard launched the first liquid-fueled rocket, de Forest made a prediction related to human space travel. 

“To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon, where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to Earth – all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a manufactured voyage will never occur, regardless of all future advances,” de Forest confidently prophesied.  

Six months ago, we observed the 50th anniversary of the Apollo 11 mission, which sent passengers to the moon where they conducted scientific observations and then safely returned to Earth. 

Lee de Forest passed away June 30, 1961, at the age of 87, a little more than two months after Yuri Gagarin became the first human to travel into space, April 12, 1961. 

De Forest knew a person traveled into space. I wonder if this may have given him pause to rethink his 1926 prediction. 

Even popular national newspapers can miss the mark with their predictions. 

In 1936, the New York Times wrote: “A rocket will never leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” 

Oct. 24, 1946, a captured German V-2 rocket missile from World War II was launched by the US from New Mexico’s White Sands Missile Range.  

The V-2 missile was equipped with a 35-millimeter motion film picture camera. 

After three minutes, its internal guidance system took the V-2 to a height of 65 miles. The onboard camera recorded the first views of the Earth ever seen from space. 

The V-2 then descended and crashed into the Earth, while traveling at 500 feet per second. The flight lasted a total of eight minutes. 

The V-2’s onboard camera was destroyed; however, the 35-millimeter motion film inside it was protected by a hardened steel case. The film video can be viewed here: https://bit.ly/2RwRwm4. 

A Universal News report of this event can be seen at https://bit.ly/38GfBfS. 

In 1943, IBM founder Thomas J. Watson Sr. was reported to have made this prediction, “I think there is a world market for, maybe, five computers.” 

In 2019, 262 million personal computers were sold. 

Nearly 20.5 billion internet-connected electronic sensors and smart devices will be in operation around the world this year. 

By 2025, various sources estimate anywhere from 41 to 75 billion IoT (Internet of Things) devices with unique identifiers will be connected to the internet. 

“[Television] won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night,” said Darryl F. Zanuck in 1946. 

Zanuck started 20th Century Films, and later bought Fox Studios, which was renamed 20th Century Fox. 

Of course, we all know what became of that plywood box. 

Popular Mechanics magazine made this futuristic prediction in 1949, “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons [3,000 pounds].” 

A 2019 15-inch MacBook Pro weighs in at a svelte 4 pounds. 

In 1961, FCC Commissioner T.A.M. Craven made this prediction: “There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States.” 

April 6, 1965, the US launched the Intelsat 1 communications space satellite, nicknamed the Early Bird. 

The Early Bird became the first commercial communications satellite to be placed in geosynchronous orbit over the Earth.  

News, sports, and special events broadcast in North America and Europe over the Early Bird began with the introduction of: “live via satellite.” 

The Intelsat 1 satellite provided one TV channel and 240 voice circuits for telephone and telefacsimile (fax) transmissions. 

In 1966, Time magazine wrote, “Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will flop.” 

In 2019, $3.46 trillion was spent globally on e-commerce (online/remote shopping) sales. 

One of my favorite predictions gone awry is from 1977, when Ken Olsen, the founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, said, “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” 

If not for my home computer, I would be writing this column using my 1976 Smith-Corona Sterling typewriter.

First view of Earth from Space. Oct. 24, 1946

Space Shuttle rising above the Earth's atmosphere

Robert Goddard constructed and successfully tested his first rocket using liquid fuel. His rocket took its first historical flight on March 16, 1926.

Engineers Stanley R. Peterson (left) and Ray Bowerman (right), checkout the Early Bird, the world's first communication satellite. NASA launched the satellite built by Hughes Aircraft Corporation on April 6, 1965 at 6:48pm E.S.T. from Complex 17a at Cape Kennedy, Florida.

Smith-Corona Sterling manual typewriter

1946 Viewtone VP-100 with a 7-inch screen and a six-channel tuner. 

Another photo of a 1946 Viewtone VP-100 with a 7-inch screen and a six-channel tuner.

V-2 rocket missile from World War II was launched by the US from New Mexico’s White Sands Missile Range.

The bold look of technology

© Mark Ollig


Will 2020 be the start of when smart technology takes a quantum leap, and we begin taking it for granted?

At this month’s CES (Consumer Electronics Show), smart home devices were being shown on nearly every display floor.

Some 272 exhibit booths featuring smart home and kitchen devices were spread across the Tech West, Tech South, and Tech East show floors of CES in Las Vegas, NV.

One CES Smart Home Kitchen Award was given to a device, made by CookingPal, called Julia.

Julia is a kitchen counter-top chef appliance that combines video-guided cooking and AI (artificial intelligence) food recognition.

This smart appliance can chop, mix and blend, boil and steam, knead, grind, grate, whisk, combine, weigh, and cook food all in one machine.

Julia can be controlled using a smartphone app or its Smart Kitchen Hub Tablet.

You select the recipe, add the ingredients, and hand it all off to Julia to do the cooking.

Detailed information about CookingPal’s Julia can be found on its website at https://www.cookingpal.com.

Of course, a smart home includes the bathroom, and so it comes as no surprise that technology has created – get ready for it – an intelligent toilet.

CES recognized Kohler Company’s Numi 2.0 intelligent toilet as one of its Innovation Awards Honorees under the smart home category.

So, how does one operate an intelligent toilet?

There are several ways. One can use voice-commands via Amazon Alexa, a remote-control device, or the Kohler Konnect app on your smartphone.

Numi 2.0 offers the ability to adjust every aspect of a users’ experience per their individual preferences.

Approaching the intelligent toilet will cause it to automatically lift its lid and provide a warm seat for you. Your feet will also enjoy the built-in foot warmer.

Other features include ambient and nighttime lighting, and wireless Bluetooth music syncing over its built-in speakers.

Numi 2.0 provides adjustable controls for water temperature, water cleansing pressure, and spray.

And when you are finished, the unit will automatically flush and close the lid.

Yes, indeed, folks. This advanced intelligent toilet undeniably demonstrates “The Bold Look of Kohler.”

For more information about Kohler’s 2020 high-tech toilet, visit its webpage via this shortened link: https://bit.ly/30OrJZG.

Today, nearly 40 million of us are using “smart speakers,” such as Google Home, Amazon Echo, and Apple’s Siri in our homes.

We are adding other smart devices to these smart speakers to control lighting, temperature, and even seeing and talking with someone who knocks on our door.

The progression of more smart devices being commonly used in our homes will continue at an accelerated rate during this decade.

It has been estimated, revenue in the smart home device market will reach nearly $54 billion by 2022, according to Zion Market research.

The Consumer Technology Association puts on the CES each year. Gary Shapiro is its president and CEO.

Shapiro gave the CES keynote address and spoke of the current innovations in technology, such as artificial intelligence, health and wellness, and robotics.

“Will the industry adapt to the changing demands of consumers in the decade ahead?” Shapiro asked the audience.

Of course, it will.

During the 2020s, all of us will experience both bold and improved smart technology as it becomes interlaced within our daily lives.

 The "Julia" smart kitchen appliance

Kohler Company’s Numi 2.0 intelligent toilet 

Technology during the ‘20s

© Mark Ollig


Numerous articles describing technology we may be using during the 2020s have been written.

Today, I decided on a different theme.

Let us look back at some of the technology developed during the 1920s.

In 1920, World War I had been over for two years, and people were enjoying the fruits of victory, which included using newly-invented electronic devices.

The same year, the first handheld electric hair dryers were being sold to the public by National Stamping and Electric Works, under the name White Cross Band.

In 1920, 35 percent of American housing units owned a telephone; people could now instantly communicate with each other over great distances.

The same year found automobiles outnumbering the horses and buggies. Ford Model T autos and trucks were traveling long distances over improved roads.

May 5, 1920, Detroit Police Officer William Potts invented the traffic light.

The evening of Nov. 2, 1920, the first commercial radio station began its public broadcast.

KDKA, out of Pittsburg, PA started its radio transmission of the live election results of the Warren G. Harding versus James M. Cox US presidential election (which Harding won). A future president, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, was Cox’s running mate.

Minnesota lays claim to fame for inventing the first automatic “pop-up” toaster in 1921, by Charles P. Strite, who was born in Minneapolis.

While working in Stillwater, Strite noticed the toast served in a local cafeteria was mostly burned.

Back then, a person needed to monitor the bread being toasted and remove it from the toasting device, such as a wired frame over an open flame, before it burned.

Strite started work on a machine that would automatically stop heating the bread once it was toasted and eject it from the toasting device.

He added heating elements, so both sides of a slice of bread were toasted at the same time.

When the timer turned off the electricity, a mechanical spring ejected, or “popped up,” the finished toast, thus, no more burned toast.

Oct. 18, 1921, Strite received US Patent No. 1,394,450 for his “Bread-Toaster” device, which became known as the Toastmaster.

The Toastmaster was first sold only to restaurants.

Several model types were manufactured, including one that toasted 12 slices of bread simultaneously. This model weighed 65 pounds and consumed 5,500 watts of power.

Strite’s company, Waters-Genter of Minneapolis, began selling the first automatic pop-up household toaster under the name Toastmaster in 1926.

One commonly-sold model was the four-slice Toastmaster, which weighed 32 pounds and cost $100.

Strite’s original company became Toastmaster, Inc. It was acquired by Salton, Inc. in 1999, which also owns the rights to the George Foreman Grill.

So, when you are having your toast this morning, thank fellow Minnesotan Charles Perkins Strite.

Check out Strite’s Bread-Toaster US Patent at: https://tinyurl.com/MNToast

In 1922, folks were driving their new Ford Model T Roadster to the “picture places” (movie theaters), comprised of art deco architecture, luxuriously-lined marble walls, plush carpeted floors, and smartly-dressed uniformed ushers. These picture places featured silent movies and/or vaudeville acts.

In 1923, the first bulldozer with a dirt-pushing blade attached to its front was invented by J. Earl McLeod and James Cummings in Morrowville, KS.

Using a manual 3-speed, 4-cylinder inline engine Ford Motor Company Fordson tractor, the bulldozer was used for plowing fields, moving dirt, stones, rubble, and other objects.

The bulldozer’s blade was made from oak with reinforced iron and a metal blade running along the bottom.

This blade was lifted using a heavy spring, powered by an air-motor. The bulldozer frame was made from Ford Model T parts.

Dec. 14, 1926, Robert Goddard, who is considered the father of modern rocketry, invented the first liquid-fueled rocket, which he successfully launched March 16 of the same year. The flight reached an altitude of 41 feet, and reached speeds of about 60 mph. The rocket’s propellants were liquid oxygen and gasoline.

In 1927, the Ford Motor Company’s Model A automobile went on sale. The Model A replaced the Model T (no longer being manufactured), and included a safety glass windshield, four-wheel brakes, and hydraulic shock absorbers. It also featured Ford’s iconic blue, oval logo badge.

The first commercial international transatlantic telephone call took place from New York to London Jan. 7, 1927.

“Television for the Home” was the headline on the front page of the April 1928 Popular Mechanics Magazine. A photo showed a wooden television box with a 3-inch-square viewing aperture, along with two parents and their four children looking intently at the tiny television screen.

The year 1928 saw the first bread-slicing machine, invented by Otto Frederick.

In 1929, the first commercially-successful mass-produced car radios were being installed.

Paul Galvin is credited with the start of the public’s fascination with having a car radio.

The first production car radio model was called a 5T71, but Galvin wanted a better-sounding name for it and decided on Motorola.

In 1930, he began the Motorola company.

CES unveils the latest technology

© Mark Ollig


An estimated 200,000 people attended the CES 2020 (Consumer Electronic Show) Jan. 7-10 in Las Vegas, NV.

More than 4,500 startups and industry-leading consumer technology companies showcased their high-tech wares on nearly 3 million square feet of exhibit floor space.

Mercedes-Benz revealed its futuristic-looking pod car, called Vision AVTR (Advanced Vehicle Transformation), inspired by James Cameron’s movie, “Avatar.”

Hyundai Motor Company announced plans to manufacture “Jetsons-like” self-flying electric cars, to be used as air taxis, in 2023.

Uber will be teaming up with Hyundai in this flying taxi venture, called Uber Air Taxis.

Sony surprised many people at CES with the announcement of their Sony Vision-S electric concept sedan.

This sedan is filled with a lot of electronic devices, including 33 sensors, multiple widescreen displays, 360 audio sound, and always-on internet connectivity.

The built-in Sony Vision-S ToF (Time-of-Flight) in-cabin sensors use distance measurement technology to detect and recognize people and objects inside the car.

Sony said the ToF information is used to optimize information/entertainment systems with intuitive interfaces, such as gesture control, improved safety, and better comfort inside the vehicle.

Sony also revealed its new PlayStation 5 system, and its new logo, PS5, which, to me, looks a lot like the PS4 logo, only with a 5.

The PS5 includes 3D audio, ultra HD Blu-Ray, Ray Tracing, an ultra-highspeed solid-state drive (SSD), and a Haptics/Adaptive Controller.

Sony also announced more than 106 million PlayStation 4s have been sold.

The folks from the Charmin Paper Company showcased its toilet paper robot, called the Charmin RollBot. It was frequently seen roaming the floors during CES.

The RollBot uses Bluetooth wireless connectivity.

Smiles were seen on the faces of the people who saw the Charmin RollBot.

To me, the RollBot looked like a Roomba autonomous vacuum cleaner with a roll of packaged toilet paper on top of it.

A sign stating, “Toilet Paper Droid Delivery System,” was attached to the RollBot.

If you ever find yourself without toilet paper – uh oh, somebody didn’t replace the roll – you can instruct the Charmin RollBot to deliver a fresh roll of toilet paper to your lavatory location using an app on your smartphone.

The Charmin RollBot is not yet for sale to the public, but I look for it to become available soon.

LG presented a new smart refrigerator for growing your own herbs and vegetables, called the LG Harvester.

It has been described as an “indoor gardening appliance,” and “indoor vegetable cultivator.”

Harvester’s internal water supply system evenly distributes the right amount of water for each plant type.

Also, the Harvester refrigerator replicates outdoor growing conditions using adjustable temperature, lighting, and forced-air circulation.

The refrigerator allows you to plant and grow 24 seed packages of various vegetables and herbs.

You can get a status on the vegetables and herbs inside the Harvester using a monitoring app for your smartphone, so yes, this refrigerator is connected to the internet.

Intel Corporation introduced its new 10nm core-based computing processor called Tiger Lake.

This processor is said to offer a double-digit performance increase over Intel’s prior generation processor, Ice Lake.

Currently, more than 38 billion electronic devices are connected to the internet, and estimates state this number will increase to 56 billion by 2025.

Of these devices, 42 billion will be small, electronic components, known as IoT (Internet of Things).

An IoT is a specific-use, electronic device combined with a computer program and wireless connectivity to the internet.

Many IoT devices will eventually connect to the internet through 5G networks.

By 2025, each of us will own, on average, seven IoT smartdevices.

IoT devices are used at home, business, city municipalities, utility providers, government agencies, education institutions, and in industry.

IoT can be medical wearable devices, smart automobiles, appliances, and monitoring sensors.

Smart building’s IoT sensors observe utility usages, such as heating, venting, air-conditioning, and electrical systems.

IoT devices can also communicate with each other to exchange information.

These IoT devices are remotely accessible by a user or automated system to retrieve and manage the information they acquire.

By 2025, it is estimated the amount of digital information generated from all IoT devices will be nearly 175 zettabytes – or 175 billion terabytes.

The first CES event took place June 24, 1967, at the Americana and Hilton hotels in New York City.

During this event, 17,500 people toured through 200 exhibits showcasing transistor radios, tape recorders, portable and console color televisions, and high-fidelity (Hi-Fi) stereo systems.

The Consumer Electronics Show has been taking place once-a-year in Las Vegas since 1998.

The Charmin RollBot

We begin the new ‘Roaring ‘20s’

© Mark Ollig


What goes around, comes around. 

This saying is also valid for decades.

Not only are we beginning a new year, but we have also re-entered the decade of the ‘20s. 

Those living in 1920 anticipated a bright future, as the economy was roaring, and the nation’s wealth began an unprecedented acceleration.

One hundred years ago, the US population was 106.5 million people.

In 1920, 37,275 Americans owned a telephone.

The same year, KDKA out of Pittsburgh, PA, became the first commercial radio station to begin transmitting its amplitude modulated over-the-air signal on 1020 kHz.

People living in Pittsburgh purchased “Amateur Wireless Sets,” or ready-to-use radio receiver boxes with wired headphones from the local Joseph Horne department store to listen to the local radio station broadcast.

Live election results of the Harding-Cox US presidential election were broadcast over KDKA the evening of Nov. 2, 1920. It was a significant event, as people learned the results from the radio broadcast before the newspapers went to press.

The election-night radio broadcast originated inside a small shack atop one of the Westinghouse Electric buildings in East Pittsburgh.

In this historic first-of-its-kind live radio broadcast to the public of the voting results, four people, engineer William Thomas; telephone line operator John Frazier; R.S. McClelland; and the first radio announcer, Leo Rosenberg were there that night.

An estimated 1,000 radio listeners learned the moment Warren Harding defeated James Cox for the presidency. 

Today, we live in a news-rich environment; broadcasting originates from a multitude of professional and amateur sources, and over a variety of transmission mediums.

The word, broadcasting, is credited to Frank Conrad, an engineer with the Westinghouse Electric Company in Pittsburgh. 

He was immersed in new technology and built an experimental radio transmitter on the second floor of his garage in Wilkinsburg, PA. 

Conrad chose to use broadcasting to describe radio transmissions as analogous with the agricultural term, broadcast seeding, meaning spreading seeds far and wide. 

So, it made sense to call radio’s voice information as broadcasting to the people far and wide. 

One-hundred years ago, a Detroit radio station aired what many consider to be the first news broadcast. 

Aug. 31, 1920, “The Detroit News Radiophone” station 8MK, began a nightly news broadcast running from 8 to 10 p.m. 

For the previous 10 days, the Detroit News newspaper-owned station, 8MK, had broadcast only music. The radio station changed its call letters to WWJ in 1922.

In 1922, the US public purchased 100,000 radios and listened to 30 radio stations.

The following year, the public bought more than 500,000 radio sets. 

In 1926, radio signals were covering much of the US by some 700 radio stations, including NBC. CBS radio began in 1927.

Radio was now competing with the printed pages of the local newspaper to provide the public with news and information. 

With commercial electricity becoming available to more homes and businesses in 1920, the significance of radio broadcasting to the public started. The birth of “mass media” had begun in earnest. 

It’s been 100 years since public broadcast radio technology made its entrance. It is still listened to by millions, who get their news, weather, sports, and entertainment from it. 

Will radio technology still be roaring after the next 100 years? 

Stay tuned for my answer in 2120.

For the record, the first successful test transmission of the human voice occurred Dec. 23, 1906, on Cobb Island near Washington, DC.

Reginald Aubrey Fessenden transmitted audible speech over magnetic radio waves, using a spark-gap transmitter. His words were heard and understood one mile away on a wireless radio receiver.

The radio message, “One, two, three, four, is it snowing where you are Mr. Thiessen? If it is, would you telegraph back to me?”, was heard over Thiessen’s radio receiver.

I hope we all have a happy, safe, and prosperous new year.

Welcome to the new Roaring ‘20s.

(Digital image right-to-use fee paid to Clipart of LLC)